DeepMIP paper on GMST and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM, and latest Paleocene published

New DeepMIP paper recently published in Climate of the Past

Inglis, G. N., Bragg, F., Burls, N. J., Cramwinckel, M. J., Evans, D., Foster, G. L., Huber, M., Lunt, D. J., Siler, N., Steinig, S., Tierney, J. E., Wilkinson, R., Anagnostou, E., de Boer, A. M., Dunkley Jones, T., Edgar, K. M., Hollis, C. J., Hutchinson, D. K., and Pancost, R. D.: Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene, Clim. Past, 16, 1953–1968,, 2020.


“Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval.”

“Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively”.

“We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2.”